Tsunami Hazardous Impact Assessed in a New Warning Survey, UrFU Scientist Represents Russia

12:52, May 11, 2021

UrFU scientist Dr. Maria Gritsevich has shared the details of the report on geohazards published by Frontiers in Earth Science journal

An international team of scientists from 20 countries and three continents - North America, Eurasia and Australia - identified 47 scientific problems that impede the successful prevention and elimination of the consequences of the tsunami. Based on the analysis carried out, the researchers - the world's leading experts on natural disasters - have outlined the directions for further scientific research.

The final review of the research team is published in a special issue of the reputable scientific journal Frontiers in Earth Science.

A senior researcher at the Extra Terra Consortium laboratory of the Ural Federal University and the Finnish Institute for Geospatial Research, associate professor of planetary research at the University of Helsinki Maria Gritsevich represented Russia in the collective review.

The main problems identified in the review are associated with large gaps and uncertainties in knowledge about tsunamis, insufficient well-documented observations, and imperfect methods of processing available information. One of the reasons is the lack of coordination in the efforts of those countries for which the study and prediction of tsunamis, forecasting the corresponding risks and preparation for repelling threats are vital.

"The generally accepted approaches have not yet been determined, potentially incompatible probabilistic methods are used in different regions of the world, and various sources of tsunamis are often considered independently of each other," the authors of the report state.

Maria Gritsevich notes that an asteroid-comet hazard is associated with the origin of the tsunami.

“Science knows about more than one million asteroids in the solar system. In total, according to calculations, more than 150 million asteroids more than 100 meters in size revolve around the Sun. Since the ocean occupies more than 70% of the Earth's surface, the fall of any of these celestial bodies on our planet with a comparable probability will cause a strong tsunami. Let's not forget that it was the fall of the asteroid into the Gulf of Mexico 65 million years ago that led to the extinction of a large number of animal species, including dinosaurs,” points out Maria Gritsevich.

The main "terrestrial" sources of the origin of tsunamis are abnormally strong and rapid fluctuations in atmospheric pressure, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes (on land and under water), movement of the earth's crust and rock slides. Often these forces are interconnected. But mankind does not have reliable historical and detailed modern data to take into account the interdependence of the listed factors and, thus, to foresee the time and place of occurrence of each next tsunami.

Moreover, due to uncertainties, scientists studying the natural phenomena that cause tsunamis often do not pay any attention to this connection. Although tsunamis can be even more destructive and deadly. According to the authors of the review, this approach is typical, for example, of volcanologists. As a result, a systematic study of information about tsunamis in volcano studies is often absent, the authors of the review argue.

In addition, the power of computer technologies used to predict tsunamis is insufficient to solve the problems at hand, while the numerical models themselves are too complex and costly.

Due to the totality of reasons, many coastal cities, especially in developing countries, are not ready to "receive" the tsunami, to adequately assess the possible damage and losses. This affects, for example, in the construction of buildings and structures. Schools and hospitals, industrial enterprises, harbors, roads and bridges, power plants (including nuclear ones), gas and oil storage facilities, and various communications are under threat. And most importantly, the lives of many people.

“Buildings are often used as evacuation shelters. In this case, a tsunami affects the lower floors of a high-rise building, while seismic loads - on the upper ones. But tsunami effects such as basement erosion and debris impact are rarely modeled. These effects have yet to be investigated, ”the authors of the review report.

Thus, there is no clear idea about the potential economic damage and costs required to combat tsunamis and their consequences. The quality of disaster risk management - who and what, from what harm, at what cost and how to protect - often leaves much to be desired.

“In most cases, aid arrives late, leaving affected communities in a vulnerable position, especially in the first hours and days after the event,” the survey says.

“We call for the creation and continuous enrichment of unified databases, conduct the necessary research and regularly exchange information, improve the methods of its analysis and modeling of emergencies, and carefully plan actions in case of cascading natural disasters. We are convinced that with proper funding, the availability of the necessary scientific equipment and technologies, it is quite possible to eliminate the gaps in understanding the tsunami phenomenon that we have identified,” Maria Gritsevich outlines.

The review, co-authored by Maria Gritsevich and 50 other scientists, was funded by the European Union and the European Cooperation in Research and Technology (COST) intergovernmental program.

Reference

In 80% of cases, tsunamis are caused by seismic disturbances, as a result of which deformation (rise and fall) of the seabed occurs. The deadliest tsunami in the 21st century occurred on December 26, 2004 in the Indian Ocean, the death toll and missing persons - more than 235 thousand people. On March 11, 2011, a tsunami destroyed the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant in Japan. The death of more than 2 thousand people over the next several years is associated with the disaster at the nuclear power plant. As a direct result of the tsunami, about 18.5 thousand people died and went missing.