Scientists Observe Increased Thawing of Active Permafrost Layer

09:57, May 16, 2022

In honor of the International Climate Day, here's a story about the work of climatologists

The history and achievements of Ural Federal University's Climate and Environmental Physics Laboratory. The laboratory was established in 2004, when Professor Vyacheslav Zakharov wrote a joint scientific article with Professor Jean Jouzel, an outstanding climatologist, member of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at that time Director of the Institute of Pierre-Simon Laplace in Paris.

"In the early 2000s, we proposed a pioneering method in atmospheric water cycle research - satellite monitoring of "heavy water" in the atmosphere, i.e. the so-called isotopic tracer of the water cycle. We were the first to propose and test this method - we determined the latitudinal distribution of such water over the Pacific Ocean using satellite remote sensing of the atmosphere, and this started our collaboration with Jean Jouzel," described Vyacheslav Zakharov.

Seven years later, the colleagues won a large grant from the Russian Government to create a Climate and Environmental Physics Laboratory at UrFU.

Being in the Arctic

"Our goal is to study the carbon and water cycles in the northern regions, to predict their change under the influence of global warming. The main source of information for us is the isotopic composition of water and gases: carbon dioxide and methane. Water and carbon cycles are the most important climatic subsystems. By studying ice, we can reconstruct climatic processes that took place on Earth thousands of years ago and build predictive models," explained Jeune Jouzel to journalists.

The Ural Federal University laboratory was set up like the one in Paris, where Jeune Jouzel conducted research. In 2011, Professor Jouzel became the scientific director of the Ekaterinburg laboratory, and Vyacheslav Zakharov became its head. Due to the participation of Jouzel and two dozen other French and German scientists, the laboratory acquired international status.

"Climate is global, and international cooperation is important for studying it. The fact is that in two years there is a complete mixing of the atmosphere between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. For the representativeness of observation data, they need to be continuously collected in different regions of the globe for a period of time that includes at least several cycles of atmospheric mixing between the hemispheres, to exchange them - and here Jean Jouzel helped us to expand contacts in the international arena," said Vyacheslav Zakharov.

Jean Jouzel explained his choice of Ural Federal University by the importance of studying the effects of global warming on the permafrost of the Ural and Western Siberia.

"The cause of global warming is primarily human activity. Over the last 50 years it has led to a sharp increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Due to developed industry and use of fossil fuels, the level of emissions in the Urals, Siberia and Russia as a whole is quite high. A lot of organic materials are "buried" in permafrost. If permafrost continues to thaw, these organic materials will start to decompose and uncontrolled emission of greenhouse gases will start, probably even on a much larger scale than now, with even greater consequences. A similar situation is now in Alaska, in Northern Canada - the permafrost is also melting there, and it is beginning to have a very serious impact on the state of the industrial infrastructure, on the prospects for oil and gas production," the French scientist said in one of his interviews.

In addition, Russia's scientific presence in the Arctic in the form of scientific stations equipped with modern permafrost monitoring equipment was considered insufficient at the time. Whereas permafrost leaves two-thirds of our country's territory and carries a complex and extensive industrial and social infrastructure, since it is in this zone that Russia's largest oil and gas fields are located.

State-of-the-art Technology

The laboratory team installed monitoring stations in Labytnangi (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region) and Igarka (Krasnoyarsk Territory). They measure year-round the relative concentration of isotopologues (varieties of molecules) of water in water vapor in the surface layers of the atmosphere, thus providing real-time information on changes in the atmospheric water cycle as a result of climatic transformations.

The research involves advanced equipment, such as infrared spectrometers, which enable continuous measurements of isotope content in water vapor, as well as ground-based infrared Fourier spectrometry: the relevant equipment was installed at the Kourovka Astronomical Observatory of the UrFU. Thus, to remote sensing of the atmosphere from satellites, with which the scientists of the university started even before they met Jean Jouzel, the direction of ground-based sensing was added: using the infrared Fourier spectrometer at the Kourovka Observatory, researchers collected information about greenhouse gases, amounts of methane, carbon dioxide, isotopes of water vapor, and so on.

"Atmospheric ground sounding data at Kourovka were used to verify satellite data. Then, when we started cooperating with Jean Jouzel, laser analyzers were added to the observatory for routine in situ measurements of water vapor isotopologues in the surface atmosphere. In addition, it became possible to collect precipitation and analyze it for water isotopologues in the laboratory on a similar laser analyzer. The newest area of research is modeling using the general atmospheric circulation model," said Vyacheslav Zakharov about the technical side of the laboratory's activities.

Disappointing Forecasts

As the scientists explain, at our stations, data - so-called isotopic tracers of the water cycle - are recorded every two seconds, time series of these datasets are accumulated, and then observation results are compared with the results of modeling using a climate model.

"We are working with the standard European climate model, which has several components: a general atmospheric circulation model, an ocean circulation model and a sub-model of exchange of the Earth's surface with the atmosphere. When we carefully check the model on the results of real observations and, if necessary, improve it, we will be able to use it for forecasting," explained Zakharov.

After five years of observation, laboratory staff was able to state: in places, the active permafrost layer thaws more than two meters deep during the summer season, and the depth of seasonal thawing increases over the years, which can subsequently lead to the destruction of buildings and networks. For example, in 2016 in Salekhard in February, according to the weather station, the deviation from the norm was +12.5 degrees, and on February 27 the temperature rose to zero degrees. If the warming and increased depth of thawing of the permafrost layer during construction is not taken into account, it can lead to serious economic costs and risks to human health and life.

"The permafrost layer in regions of Western Siberia averages about 20 meters. Accordingly, if it all melts, it will fall by the same 20 meters and probably be flooded with water. However, farther to the East, the permafrost is already about 200 and more meters, and there the consequences could be more serious. In addition, with warming, shrinkage increases, and it is more dangerous for the state of the permafrost than just an increase in air temperature," informed Vyacheslav Zakharov.

Events and Discoveries

At the end of 2017, the history of the Climate and Environmental Physics Laboratory entered a new stage: upon the invitation of German colleagues from the University of Bremen, researchers from UrFU, as well as specialists from St. Petersburg University, joined an international consortium created as part of the European science support program Horizon 2020. The consortium includes 38 research and scientific organizations from 15 countries. The goal of the project is to develop accurate and reliable methods for obtaining quantitative data on sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The task of Ural Federal University scientists is to obtain and conduct a comparative analysis of monitoring data on carbon-containing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of the Ural and directly in Ekaterinburg.

A year later, the Laboratory won a grant from the Russian Science Foundation for the project "Methods for Solving Uncorrected Inverse Problems in Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere to Reconstruct Isotopic Tracers of Water and Carbon Cycles".

"Data on the relative content of water molecule isotopologues in the atmosphere provides unique information about the atmospheric hydrological cycle and patterns of latent heat transfer from the ocean to the land and from the equator to the poles. Global monitoring will enable us to separate the contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources of key greenhouse gas emissions, namely carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere," explained Vyacheslav Zakharov the idea of the project.

In 2020, as part of the UrFU strategic project "Monitoring and Forecasting the Arctic Cryosystem State", the Laboratory for the first time, together with European colleagues, verified ECHAM6-wiso, the sixth and newest version of the supercomputer global atmospheric circulation model (ECHAM6-wiso differs from previous versions in that it models atmospheric-soil interaction, including at depths up to 7.5 m). The verification of ECHAM6-wiso was carried out using graphs of hourly indicators for water cycle isotopic tracers, taken from spectrometers in Labytnangi and Igarka (and also on Samoilovsky Island in the Lena River delta, where the Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences is located), and in addition - from sensors in five key areas of tundra and forest tundra in the Southern Yamal, within 100-200 km from Labytnangi, by main soil and vegetation types. The sensors were sunk seven years ago into the soil at varying depths of up to one meter, and they measure temperature and humidity hourly. Scientists use them to determine the intensity and factors of seasonal thawing of the active layer of permafrost.

For example, it was found that the depth of thawing depends on soil characteristics and the type of vegetation: if the soil is poorly permeable, the depth of thawing is less, and vice versa. In other words, the active layer of permafrost thaws not only because of temperature, but also because of rainfall, the amount of which is increasing due to global warming.

Such work was carried out for the first time in the Ural and Western Siberia.

"The model is needed to predict how fast global warming is happening, what the consequences could be. In order to be sure that the model works correctly, it needs to faithfully reproduce the experimental data obtained earlier," commented Zakharov.

Cautions and Advice

According to Vyacheslav Zakharov, over the last 1.5 centuries the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has increased 1.5 times, and the methane content 2.5 times. Science has established that this is a record dynamic for 800 thousand years. According to current projections, by 2050 there will be periods when the Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free in summer. The reduction of the Earth's "ice cap" will lead to a reduction in the reflective effect and an increase in ocean heating. Considering that there is 80-100 times more carbon dioxide in the world's oceans than in the Earth's atmosphere, and the heating of water leads to the emission of carbon dioxide, this will further intensify global warming.

"Emissions are not decreasing and are even increasing, despite any international agreements. The situation looks like a dead end. In this regard, the task of climate models is no longer just to record the manifestations of global warming, but to predict its consequences as accurately as possible in time and place, particularly for the permafrost zone, in order to evacuate people and dismantle infrastructure in advance," Zakharov notes.

He, like many climate scientists, calls for a mid-term transition to low-carbon energy, to increase the share of energy with a low carbon footprint.

"This primarily involves the development of the "peaceful atom" and hydropower, renewable energy sources (wind, solar energy, etc.), in the likely long term perspective - thermonuclear energy," draws attention Vyacheslav Zakharov.

The news article was translated by UrFU International Marketing Office
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