Konstantin Gribanov: "In 50 Years, We Will Have to Install Air Filters"

14:44, May 15, 2023

Impacts of fires, satellite monitoring, and carbon pollution discussed by climate scientist

Climate warming has an impact on the increase in the probability of fires, as well as on the fact that fires contribute to climate warming through the emission of greenhouse gases. This was explained by Konstantin Gribanov, the Head Researcher of the Climate and Environmental Physics Laboratory of the Ural Federal University and the Specialist of the Ural Carbon Polygon. The climate scientist explained where the worst fires are today, why it is difficult to monitor them with satellites, how carbon dioxide emissions are increasing, and what consequences this may have in the near future.

"Global warming is associated with the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly carbon dioxide. The idea is to investigate ways of removing this carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and putting it into ecosystems, for example, in the form of wood or carbon in the soil. A fire is the release of carbon back into the atmosphere, which also contributes to climate warming. This is not good, especially for our country, because first of all, in Russia 60 percent of the territory is permafrost. Secondly, it means an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events: hurricanes, floods, prolonged lack of rain, and others," Konstantin Gribanov explains.

Effective detection of fires in their initial stages by means of satellite monitoring is practically impossible at present, the expert states.

"This is a very serious problem for the entire world. To date, I know of only four satellites capable of monitoring - three NASA satellites and one Russian Meteor-M. They manage to look at the same place every six hours. Satellites have something called a swath. The swath of the satellites I mentioned is 2-3 thousand km. The length of the equator is 40 thousand km. We take half - 20 thousand km, because in one orbit the satellite has an ascending trajectory from south to north and a descending trajectory from north to south, i.e. it crosses the equator twice in one orbit. If we divide this distance by the swath, it turns out that the satellite can "look" at a point every 6-8 hours," Gribanov says.

Another difficulty is that the spatial resolution of satellites is about one kilometer when they "look down" and about two kilometers when they "turn their heads" left and right, the expert adds. This means that if there is a fire burning on a pixel that reflects an area of one kilometer by one kilometer, the fire is burning on an area of 10 by 10 meters (for example, a house), the satellite will not see it yet. The satellite will see the fire over a larger area and in the absence of clouds.

"The problem is that the territory of the Russian Federation is huge. To detect a fire quickly, you need a lot of orbital sensors - at least a hundred - with high spectral resolution, which will monitor and detect small fires on a daily basis. This satellites should have thermal sensors in two thermal ranges - about four micrometers and 10-11 micrometers, which is also very expensive," concludes Konstantin Gribanov.

The fires in Russia are not the most serious, the climate scientist adds. According to the Copernicus Fire Monitoring, the most critical situation today with the most powerful fires is in Africa, South America, Mexico and India. All these fires contribute, among other things, to global warming and the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

"About 10 years ago, when I started studying this issue, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 350 parts per million. Now it is approaching 420 ppm on average around the planet. In one city it can be a thousand. With such an indicator of a thousand ppm, doctors advise to open the windows, to ventilate the room, because some people may feel sick. In 50 years, when there will be a thousand, it will be useless to open the window, it will be necessary to install air filters to filter out CO2," concludes Gribanov.

The news article was translated by UrFU International Marketing Office. 
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